How Perceived Skill Mismatch Between Education and Job Market Influences Migration Intentions: Evidence from Afghan University Students

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between education–job skill mismatch perception and migration intentions among Afghan university students, with unemployment fear as a mediating factor. Using survey data collected from 250 students and analyzed through SPSS, the study employs reliability analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, and mediation analysis to examine the hypothesized relationships. The findings indicate that skill mismatch perception significantly increases unemployment fear, which in turn positively influences students’ migration intentions. Mediation analysis confirms that unemployment fear partially mediates the relationship between skill mismatch perception and migration intentions. These results underscore the critical role of labor market alignment and employment-related anxiety in shaping youth migration behavior. Policy implications suggest the need for better alignment between higher education curricula and labor market requirements, enhanced career guidance, and targeted youth employment initiatives to reduce migration pressures. The study contributes to understanding the psychological and structural drivers of migration intentions in the Afghan context.